Market evolution: Bakery and pasta machinery (CN 843810) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in bakery and pasta machinery (customs code 843810) over the period 2015–2025. The code covers machinery for the industrial production of bakery products (excluding ovens and dough rollers) and for the manufacture of macaroni, spaghetti, and similar pasta products (excluding drying machines and dough rollers). It is a bundling heading that encompasses two sub-segments: bakery machinery (84381010) and pasta machinery (84381090).

The EU is a dominant global player in this sector. In 2025, the bloc exported over €1.38 billion worth of such machinery while importing only €183 million, yielding a trade surplus of nearly €1.2 billion. Italy alone accounts for more than half of EU exports and over a third of domestic production. Over the decade, however, the market has undergone notable structural shifts: export values have risen sharply even as volumes have stagnated, import growth has been strong, and key destination markets have reconfigured significantly. This report analyses these dynamics across three main themes.

1. A Premiumisation Trend: Export Values Surge While Volumes Stall

The most striking feature of the decade is the divergence between EU export value and volume. Between 2015 and 2025, export value rose from €1.06 billion to €1.38 billion (+30.5%), yet export volume actually declined from 46,129 tonnes to 43,954 tonnes (−4.7%). The result is a steep increase in the average export price, from €22,975 per tonne to €31,455 per tonne (+36.9%) (trade overview).

Export prices accelerated strongly after 2020

The price increase was not gradual. Bakery machinery export prices remained broadly stable around €23,000–€25,000/t between 2015 and 2020, then jumped to nearly €31,000/t by 2023 and €32,761/t by 2025. Pasta machinery export prices followed a similar trajectory, rising from €20,336/t in 2015 to €27,468/t in 2025 (product segment breakdown). This post-2020 acceleration likely reflects a combination of pandemic-era supply chain tightening, rising input costs, and—critically—a structural shift toward higher-value, more automated, and digitally integrated machinery.

The price premium over imports has widened dramatically

EU-produced machinery commands a significant and growing premium over imported equipment. In 2015, the EU exported at €22,975/t versus an import price of €16,502/t—a gap of roughly 39%. By 2025, the gap had widened to 84% (€31,455/t vs. €17,080/t). This suggests that the EU's competitive advantage lies increasingly in sophisticated, high-margin machinery, while lower-cost, possibly less complex equipment is increasingly sourced from abroad.

EU production value grew even faster than export value

EU domestic production value rose from €1.28 billion to €2.15 billion (+67.5%) over the period, substantially outpacing export growth (production volumes). Production quantity grew more modestly (+12.9%, from 141,865 to 160,184 units), confirming that the value increase was driven by price appreciation rather than a surge in unit output. This pattern is consistent with the broader trend of EU machinery manufacturers moving toward higher-value-added products.

2. Shifting Destinations: The US and UK Surge, Traditional Markets Fade

The geographic composition of EU exports has changed markedly over the decade, with the United States and the United Kingdom emerging as the dominant growth engines while several formerly significant markets have contracted.

The United States became the EU's top export market by a wide margin

US-bound exports grew from €113 million in 2015 to €265 million in 2025 (+133.5%), making the US by far the largest single destination for EU bakery and pasta machinery (top partners). A notable price shock was detected in 2023, when US-bound export prices jumped by 51.2%, with an abnormality score of 132.3 (supply shocks). This likely reflects surging demand for premium, automated food processing lines in the US, possibly accelerated by labour shortages and reshoring trends in the American food manufacturing sector.

The United Kingdom posted the fastest proportional growth among major partners

UK-bound exports grew from €33 million to €127 million (+283.8%), the steepest increase among all major destinations. This dramatic rise coincides with the post-Brexit period (2020 onwards), during which the UK—now outside the EU customs union—may have increased direct machinery imports from the EU to compensate for reduced intra-EU supply chain access or to build new domestic production capacity.

Egypt and Russia declined as export destinations

By contrast, exports to Egypt fell from €51 million to €14 million (−73.3%), and Russian-bound exports declined from €99 million to €84 million (−14.8%). Egypt's decline is particularly steep and may reflect the country's macroeconomic difficulties, currency devaluation, and reduced capital investment in food processing infrastructure. The Russian decline, while more modest, likely reflects a combination of geopolitical tensions (sanctions following 2022) and Russia's own import substitution efforts.

Import sources diversified, with the US, China, and Turkey leading growth

On the import side, the United States was also the fastest-growing supplier, with EU imports from the US rising from €19 million to €55 million (+192.9%). China grew from €16 million to €42 million (+157.1%), and Turkey from €7 million to €15 million (+113.4%). Switzerland and the UK, while still significant import partners, showed more modest growth (+19.9% and +8.4% respectively). The surge in imports from the US and China suggests increasing penetration of the EU market by non-European manufacturers, particularly at lower price points—the average import price remained far below the export price throughout the period.

3. Italy Dominates, but the EU's Trade Structure Is Becoming More Concentrated

The EU's bakery and pasta machinery sector is heavily anchored by Italy, which dominates both production and exports. However, the data reveals a broader pattern of rising concentration in both export and import flows, alongside a growing openness of the EU economy to international trade in this sector.

Italy accounts for over half of EU exports and a third of production

In 2025, Italian exports of bakery and pasta machinery reached €707 million, representing 51.1% of total EU exports and growing by 42.2% over the decade (top reporters). Italy's revealed comparative advantage (RCA) stands at 4.69—far above the neutral threshold of 1.0—confirming its strong specialisation in this sector (specialisation). Italy also holds 37.6% of EU production, making it the undisputed centre of the bloc's bakery and pasta machinery industry.

The Netherlands and Germany are significant but secondary players

The Netherlands grew its exports from €104 million to €190 million (+83.2%), consolidating its position as the second-largest EU exporter. Germany, despite being Europe's largest machinery producer overall, exported only €139 million in this segment (+15.7%), suggesting that German manufacturers focus more on adjacent food-processing categories. Austria and Denmark, once notable exporters, saw steep declines (−38.3% and −68.3% respectively), implying a consolidation of production capacity toward larger economies.

Export and import concentration both increased

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export value rose from 416 to 630 (+51.3%), while the import HHI increased from 1,323 to 1,719 (+30.0%) (concentration). The export concentration increase is driven by Italy and the Netherlands capturing a growing share of total exports. On the import side, the rising HHI reflects the growing dominance of the US and China as suppliers, with fewer partners accounting for larger shares. While neither the import nor export HHI reaches levels typically considered highly concentrated, the upward trend signals a narrowing of both the supplier base and the destination mix.

The EU's trade intensity and export propensity rose sharply

The trade intensity ratio (exports as a share of production) rose from 33.5% to 57.6% (+72.1%), while the broader trade intensity (imports + exports relative to production) climbed from 36.4% to 60.9% (+67.1%) (trade intensity). This indicates that the EU's bakery and pasta machinery sector has become substantially more export-oriented over the decade, with a growing share of production destined for international markets. The EU's deepening negative net import reliance (from −40.6% to −97.7%) confirms that the bloc remains a major net exporter, and its self-sufficiency in this segment has actually strengthened over time (net import reliance).

The pasta machinery sub-segment drives import growth

The product segment breakdown reveals an important structural nuance: imports of pasta machinery (84381090) grew much faster than imports of bakery machinery (84381010). Pasta machinery import value rose from €20 million to €47 million (+128.3%), and volumes surged from 1,323 tonnes to 3,945 tonnes (+198.2%). By contrast, bakery machinery imports grew from €80 million to €137 million (+71.6%) in value and from 4,737 to 6,782 tonnes (+43.2%) in volume. Notably, the import price of pasta machinery fell from €15,417/t to €11,811/t (−23.4%), while bakery machinery import prices rose from €16,805/t to €20,146/t (+19.9%) (product segment breakdown). This suggests that lower-cost foreign suppliers—likely from China and Turkey—are gaining ground specifically in the pasta machinery segment, where the price differential is largest.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's bakery and pasta machinery sector has evolved from a moderately export-oriented industry into a strongly trade-integrated one. The headline story is one of premiumisation: the EU exports increasingly valuable machinery even as volumes stagnate, commanding a widening price premium over imports. Italy remains the sector's anchor, but the geographic landscape has shifted dramatically, with the United States and United Kingdom emerging as the dominant growth markets while Egypt and Russia have receded.

At the same time, the EU faces growing import penetration—particularly in the pasta machinery sub-segment—where lower-cost suppliers from the US, China, and Turkey are expanding rapidly. Rising concentration indices on both the import and export sides suggest a narrowing of trade relationships, which could pose resilience risks in the event of supply disruptions or geopolitical tensions. Nevertheless, the EU's deepening net export position and rising production value indicate that the bloc's competitive position in this sector remains strong, underpinned by a shift toward higher-value, technologically advanced machinery.