Market evolution: Baby cotton knitwear (CN 611120) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU-27 trade dynamics for Babies' garments and clothing accessories of cotton, knitted or crocheted (CN 611120) over the period 2015–2025. The EU is structurally a large net importer of this product category, with a persistent trade deficit of nearly €1 billion. Over the decade, the market witnessed a profound reorientation of sourcing geographies, a decline in domestic production, and a growing reliance on Asian suppliers — all while EU exports to non-EU partners gained relative momentum. The analysis is structured around three main dynamics: the geographic reshuffling of import origins, the evolving role of the EU as an exporter, and the structural vulnerabilities revealed by volatility and concentration metrics.

1. The Great Sourcing Shift: From China to South and Southeast Asia

The most striking feature of EU imports of baby cotton knitwear between 2015 and 2025 is the dramatic decline of China's dominance and the rise of Bangladesh, India, and other Asian suppliers. Total EU import value edged down slightly from €1.26 billion in 2015 to €1.20 billion in 2025 (−4.7%), but this apparent stability masks a radical reshuffling beneath the surface.

China's share erodes by nearly half

China was the undisputed top supplier in 2015, exporting €544 million worth of baby cotton garments to the EU. By 2025, this figure had fallen to €278 million — a decline of 48.8%. China's minimum over the period (€262 million) was recorded in 2023, suggesting the contraction was steep and sustained rather than a one-off event. This trend reflects broader dynamics: rising Chinese labour costs, the US–China trade tensions indirectly reshaping global textile supply chains, and EU buyers actively diversifying sourcing away from single-country dependency.

Bangladesh emerges as the new leading supplier

Bangladesh's EU-bound exports of this product grew from €277 million in 2015 to €420 million in 2025, a 51.6% increase, peaking at €589 million in 2022. Bangladesh thus overtook China as the EU's primary source of baby cotton knitwear. This mirrors the well-documented shift in the broader EU apparel sector toward Bangladesh, which benefits from lower labour costs, preferential market access (Everything But Arms), and a maturing garment manufacturing base. Notably, Bangladesh also experienced a significant price shock in 2022 (a 32% price shift with an abnormality score of 19.0), likely linked to global cotton and energy price spikes in the post-pandemic period.

India and other Asian suppliers gain ground

India followed a similar upward trajectory, growing from €156 million to €248 million (+59.0%). Cambodia (+6.8%) and Pakistan (+33.2%) also expanded, though from smaller bases. Together, these four Asian suppliers — Bangladesh, India, Cambodia, and Pakistan — now account for the lion's share of EU imports, a structure far more diversified than the China-centric model of 2015.

The UK collapse and Türkiye's decline

Two other notable contractions stand out. Imports from the United Kingdom fell by 73.1%, from €57 million to just €15 million — a clear and quantifiable consequence of Brexit, which ended the UK's seamless participation in the EU single market. The UK import stream showed extreme volatility (coefficient of variation of 1.05, far above other partners), consistent with a structural trade disruption. Türkiye also declined from €63 million to €41 million (−34.8%), losing ground relative to lower-cost Asian competitors.

Import concentration falls as sourcing diversifies

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value decreased from 2,553 in 2015 to 2,235 in 2025 (−12.5%), confirming a meaningful diversification of supply sources. While the market remains moderately concentrated (the threshold for a highly concentrated market is typically 2,500), the trend is clearly toward reduced single-country dependency.

Source: Top partners by value — imports

2. An Emerging Export Niche: The EU's Growing (but Still Modest) Role as an Outward Shipper

While the EU is overwhelmingly an importer of baby cotton knitwear, its exports to non-EU countries grew meaningfully over the period — from €154 million in 2015 to €229 million in 2025, a 48.7% increase. This growth, combined with the relative stagnation of imports, narrowed the trade deficit from €1.11 billion to €976 million (a 12.1% improvement). Several dynamics underpin this export expansion.

EU export volumes surge while unit prices erode

In volume terms, EU exports grew by 76.7%, from 3,944 tonnes to 6,969 tonnes. However, the average export price fell by 15.9%, from €38,973 per tonne to €32,779 per tonne. This suggests that EU exporters are increasingly competing on volume rather than commanding premium pricing — possibly reflecting a shift toward mid-market positioning or the re-export of goods sourced from Asia.

Destination markets: a mixed and shifting picture

The top export destinations reveal divergent trends:

• United Kingdom remained the single largest non-EU export market but declined by 25.5%, from €34 million to €26 million — again a Brexit effect, this time on EU-to-UK shipments facing new customs frictions.
• Switzerland nearly doubled (+91.6%, reaching €28 million), likely reflecting its role as a high-income re-distribution hub.
• United States more than doubled (+111.6%, reaching €17 million), indicating growing transatlantic demand.
• Türkiye surged by 177.1% to €19 million, potentially reflecting re-export or nearshoring dynamics.
• Serbia showed the most dramatic growth (+517.1% to €11 million), consistent with the Western Balkans' integration into EU textile supply chains.
• Russia collapsed by 63.1%, from €15 million to €5 million — a direct consequence of EU sanctions following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. A severe price shock in 2022 (79.4% price shift, abnormality 27.5) accompanies this collapse.

Spain and Poland lead EU export growth

Among EU Member States, Spain was the largest exporter (€65 million in 2025, +74.7% from 2015), followed by France (€42 million) and Italy (€36 million). Poland's export growth was the most striking in relative terms: from €4.3 million to €21.2 million (+396.7%), reflecting the country's emergence as a competitive knitwear producer within the EU. Export concentration (HHI) fell from 832 to 580 (−30.3%), indicating a broadening of the EU's export base across more Member States and more destination countries.

Source: Top reporters by value — exports

3. Rising Structural Dependency and Shifting Production Landscape

Beyond the trade flow dynamics, deeper structural indicators reveal a growing vulnerability in the EU's position in this market segment.

Net import reliance climbs toward 80%

The EU's net import reliance — the share of domestic consumption satisfied by net imports — rose from 56.3% in 2015 to 78.6% in 2025, a 39.6% increase. At its peak (82.6% in an intermediate year), more than four-fifths of the EU's baby cotton knitwear consumption was sourced from outside the bloc. This growing dependency on external suppliers is the single most important structural shift of the decade.

Domestic production contracts sharply

EU production value for this product segment declined by 21.7%, from €388 million to €304 million over the available data window. This contraction in domestic manufacturing directly explains the rising import reliance: as EU-based production shrinks, the gap is filled by imports, predominantly from Asia.

Among EU producers, Spain stands out as the most specialised in this product, with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.60 and an RCA of 3.99 — meaning Spain is roughly four times more specialised in baby cotton knitwear than the EU average. Portugal (RSCA 0.43) and Poland (RSCA 0.37) follow. At the other end of the spectrum, Malta, Ireland, Finland, and Cyprus show negligible specialisation (negative RSCA values), as expected for smaller or service-oriented economies.

Trade intensity and export propensity reach new highs

Two composite indicators underline the EU's deepening integration into global trade for this product:

• Trade intensity (imports + exports as a share of production) rose from 78.4% to 98.8%, meaning that total trade flows now nearly equal domestic production in value.
• Export propensity (exports as a share of production) surged from 41.7% to 93.2% — a 123.7% increase. This means that nearly all EU production is now oriented toward export markets, while domestic consumption is increasingly satisfied by imports.

Price shocks signal ongoing supply chain fragility

The volatility analysis highlights several fragile corridors. On the import side, Myanmar (CV 0.55) and Tunisia (CV 0.54) showed high price instability. On the export side, the United Arab Emirates (CV 0.81), the United States (CV 0.80), and Japan (CV 0.74) exhibited the most volatile EU export streams. The most significant detected shock event was a 90.8% price shift on EU exports to China in 2023 (abnormality 34.2), potentially linked to post-COVID demand fluctuations or currency effects.

Conclusion

The EU market for baby cotton knitwear (CN 611120) between 2015 and 2025 tells a story of deepening globalisation. Total import value remained broadly stable at around €1.2 billion, but the composition of suppliers was fundamentally reshaped: China lost nearly half its share, while Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan filled the gap. The UK's role as both a supplier and an export destination eroded sharply after Brexit. EU exports grew by nearly 50% in value and 77% in volume, led by Spain, Poland, and France, but unit prices declined — suggesting competition is increasingly volume-driven rather than premium-oriented.

Most critically, the EU's structural dependency on external suppliers has intensified. Net import reliance climbed from 56% to 79%, domestic production contracted by over 20%, and trade intensity now approaches 100% of production. While supply diversification (reflected in falling import HHI) offers some resilience, the overall picture is one of a market where the EU's manufacturing base is retreating and its consumption is ever more dependent on a concentrated group of Asian suppliers. For policymakers concerned with strategic autonomy in essential goods, the evolution of this seemingly niche product segment is a microcosm of broader trends in European textile and apparel trade.