Market evolution: Artificial flowers and foliage (CN 6702) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of CN 6702 — artificial flowers, foliage and fruit, and articles made thereof — in EU extra-Union trade from 2015 to 2025. The product covers both plastic-based items (subheading 670210) and non-plastic items (670290), including articles assembled by binding, glueing, or similar methods. Over the period analysed, the EU has experienced rapid growth in both imports and exports of this product, but the two trajectories have differed markedly in scale, unit value, and underlying drivers. The overall trade dashboard provides the foundation for the analysis below.

1. A Widening Trade Deficit Fuelled by Surging Import Volumes

1.1 Imports have more than doubled in value and nearly tripled in volume

Between 2015 and 2025, EU imports of CN 6702 rose from €368.6 million to €769.5 million (+108.8%), while import volumes surged from 47,250 tonnes to 113,950 tonnes (+141.2%). The growth was not linear: imports peaked at approximately €862 million in 2022 before retreating, likely reflecting post-pandemic inventory adjustments and the 2022 cost-of-living shock. The full import trajectory is available on the trade overview.

1.2 Import unit prices have declined, indicating cost-competitive sourcing

Despite volume growth of over 140%, import values rose by only 109%, meaning average unit prices actually fell by 13.4% — from €7,801/t to €6,753/t. This suggests that the EU has increasingly sourced from low-cost producers and that supply-chain competition among Asian exporters has intensified. The price decline also reflects a composition shift: plastic-based artificial flowers (670210), which are cheaper per kilogramme, have grown faster than non-plastic items.

1.3 The trade deficit has doubled, and net import reliance now approaches 97%

The EU's trade deficit in CN 6702 widened from €335 million to €703 million over the period. Net import reliance — defined as (imports − exports) / apparent consumption — climbed from 85.8% to 96.8%, confirming that domestic EU production is playing a diminishing role. Indeed, reported EU production value fell from €51.4 million to €21.7 million (−57.8%), underscoring a structural shift towards import dependence.

2. China's Overwhelming Presence and the Gradual Emergence of Alternative Suppliers

2.1 China accounts for roughly 96% of EU imports by value

China has remained by far the dominant supplier of artificial flowers and foliage to the EU throughout the period. Imports from China grew from €340.4 million in 2015 to €739.2 million in 2025, an increase of 117.2%. At their peak in 2022, Chinese shipments reached approximately €833.8 million. The partner breakdown illustrates this dominance clearly.

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value stood at 9,479 in 2025 (up from 8,557 in 2015), a level indicating very high concentration. This means the EU's supply base is essentially a single-source market — a structural vulnerability.

Source: Top import partners

2.2 Hong Kong's role as a re-export hub has collapsed

Imports from Hong Kong fell from €20.4 million to €4.8 million (−76.5%). This likely reflects a combination of tighter rules of origin, the diversion of trade flows directly from mainland China, and Hong Kong's own economic and political disruptions in recent years. Hong Kong's decline has not been offset by any other intermediary.

2.3 Emerging suppliers — India, Türkiye, and Viet Nam — remain marginal but are growing fast

Several smaller suppliers have posted eye-catching growth rates:

• India: +700.8% (from €0.5M to €4.0M)
• Türkiye: +1,049.6% (from €0.1M to €1.7M)
• Viet Nam: +101.2% (from €0.9M to €1.7M)

These figures indicate early-stage supply diversification, possibly driven by EU companies seeking to reduce over-reliance on China ("China+1" strategies). However, in absolute terms these suppliers remain negligible — together they represent less than 1% of total EU imports of CN 6702.

2.4 EU exports are directed mainly at neighbouring European economies

The EU's own exports, while far smaller than imports, are concentrated in geographically proximate, high-income markets:

Source: Top export partners

The strong growth in exports to Serbia and Ukraine may reflect EU integration efforts, re-export dynamics, and increasing decorative horticultural demand in Central and Eastern Europe. Notably, exports to the Russian Federation collapsed by 86% (from €3.0M to €0.4M), almost certainly a consequence of sanctions following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

3. Price Divergence, Production Decline, and Shifting EU Internal Dynamics

3.1 Export and import unit prices have moved in opposite directions

One of the most striking features of the period is the widening price gap between EU imports and exports:

EU exports command roughly double the unit value of imports. This differential likely reflects several factors: EU exports may include higher-quality, design-intensive, or customised products destined for premium retail markets (Switzerland, Norway); re-export activity through distribution hubs (Netherlands); and the fact that many EU exports involve finishing, assembly, or branding on top of imported semi-finished goods.

3.2 Non-plastic artificial flowers command a significant price premium on export markets

Looking at the product segment breakdown, the two subheadings show divergent export price trajectories:

Non-plastic artificial flowers (670290) — which include items made of textiles, paper, or other natural-feel materials — saw export unit prices rise from €12,866/t to €19,633/t, a premium of nearly 77% over their plastic counterparts by 2025. This suggests strong demand for high-quality, non-plastic decorative products in export markets, potentially driven by sustainability trends and consumer preferences for more "natural" aesthetics.

On the import side, both subheadings saw price declines:

3.3 Plastic products dominate import growth

The plastics segment (670210) has driven the lion's share of import volume growth:

Plastic-based artificial flowers now account for approximately 70% of total import volume (up from 52% in 2015), reflecting their lower cost, greater durability, and suitability for large-scale commercial decoration (retail, events, hospitality).

3.4 EU domestic production has declined sharply

Reported EU production value fell from €51.4 million to €21.7 million over the period — a drop of 57.8%. At the low point (2023), production was only €13.9 million. This confirms that the EU has progressively exited this manufacturing segment, ceding ground to Asian producers. The production volumes page provides further detail.

3.5 The Netherlands and Poland have emerged as key EU hubs

Within the EU, the Netherlands and Poland have seen the most dramatic increases in both imports and exports:

• Netherlands imports grew +169.5% (from €56.6M to €152.4M); exports grew +205.7% (from €4.8M to €14.8M).
• Poland imports grew +302.0% (from €27.6M to €110.8M); exports grew +171.1% (from €1.6M to €4.3M).

These countries appear to function increasingly as distribution and re-export gateways for the broader European market. The Netherlands' strong Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA of 0.47 in 2025) and high RCA (2.77) in this product confirm its specialisation, likely linked to Rotterdam's logistics infrastructure.

Conclusion

The EU market for artificial flowers and foliage (CN 6702) over 2015–2025 is a story of accelerating import dependence. Trade volumes have more than doubled, but nearly all of this growth has been supplied by China, whose share has remained overwhelming and whose supply concentration has actually intensified. The EU's own production base has contracted by nearly 60%, and the trade deficit has doubled to over €700 million.

While EU exports have also grown — roughly doubling in value — they operate at far higher unit prices, suggesting a niche in design-intensive or premium products, and are concentrated in neighbouring European markets. The collapse of exports to Russia and the emergence of Ukraine and Serbia as growth destinations illustrate how geopolitical shifts have reshaped trade flows within this product category.

The most significant structural risks are the extreme import concentration on China (HHI ≈ 9,500), the near-total reliance on external supply (net import reliance at 97%), and the erosion of domestic production capacity. Although early signs of supply diversification towards India, Türkiye, and Viet Nam are visible, these remain marginal in absolute terms. For EU policymakers and businesses, this market illustrates both the benefits of globalised low-cost supply chains and the vulnerabilities they can create.