Market evolution: Ankle boots (CN 640291) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in footwear covering the ankle with outer soles and uppers of rubber or plastics (Combined Nomenclature code 640291), excluding waterproof, sports, orthopaedic, and toy footwear. The analysis covers the period 2015–2025 and draws on trade flows, partner concentration, production data, and vulnerability indicators. Over this decade, the EU market for this product has been shaped by three overarching dynamics: a sustained decline in traded volumes that is partially concealed by rising unit values, a significant geographic reconfiguration of supply chains — notably away from China and the United Kingdom — and a structural shift toward higher-value production within the EU itself, even as domestic output volumes contract.

The product overview provides the baseline reference for all figures discussed below.

1. Declining volumes, rising values: a market quietly restructuring

1.1 Import volumes have fallen while import values have proven more resilient

EU imports of CN 640291 from non-EU countries declined from 130.1 million pairs in 2015 to 101.6 million pairs in 2025, a drop of 21.9%. In weight terms the contraction was smaller — from 97,520 tonnes to 89,167 tonnes (−8.6%) — suggesting that the average pair has become heavier over the period, consistent with a shift toward more robust footwear styles. Despite the volume decline, import value only fell from €1.165 billion to €1.028 billion (−11.8%), because the average import price per pair rose from €8.95 to €10.06 (+12.3%).

The trade overview shows that import values peaked sharply in 2022 at approximately €1.587 billion — likely reflecting a combination of post-COVID restocking, global freight cost surges, and inflationary pressures — before retreating.

1.2 Export volumes have contracted far more steeply than export values

EU extra-EU exports tell an even more dramatic story. The number of pairs exported fell from 9.82 million in 2015 to just 5.79 million in 2025 (−41.1%), and tonnage dropped from 8,810 to 5,555 (−36.9%). Yet export value actually rose from €180 million to €194 million (+7.6%). The per-pair export price surged from €18.32 to €33.46 (+82.7%), indicating that the EU has progressively moved toward exporting far fewer but substantially more expensive pairs — consistent with a premium-product or niche repositioning of EU-made ankle boots on global markets.

1.3 The trade deficit has narrowed, but the EU remains structurally import-dependent

The net import reliance indicator remained above 76% throughout the period, standing at 80.6% in 2025 (up slightly from 77.7% in 2015). The trade deficit improved from −€985 million to −€834 million, but this improvement was largely driven by falling import volumes rather than any meaningful expansion of the EU's export footprint relative to imports. The EU's trade intensity — the ratio of trade (imports + exports) to apparent consumption — rose from 99.6% to 107.4%, confirming that this product remains overwhelmingly shaped by international trade flows.

2. Geographic diversification: China's share erodes as South and Southeast Asia gain ground

2.1 China remains the dominant supplier but is losing market share

China was the EU's largest source of CN 640291 imports throughout the period, but its share declined markedly. Import value from China fell from €900 million (2015) to €677 million (2025), a drop of 24.7%. China's position was at its peak around 2018–2019, when imports exceeded €1.1 billion in 2022 but already showed signs of structural erosion by 2023–2025. The partner concentration data confirms this trend.

2.2 Myanmar has emerged as the fastest-growing supplier

The most striking shift is the rise of Myanmar, which went from a negligible €1.5 million in EU imports in 2015 to €51.1 million in 2025 — an increase of over 3,300%. Myanmar's imports peaked at €65.6 million in 2023, though its coefficient of variation (0.91) indicates high volatility. Bangladesh (+173.5%) and Cambodia (+113.1%) also recorded strong growth, collectively pointing to a broader relocation of low-cost footwear manufacturing toward South and Southeast Asia beyond China and Viet Nam.

2.3 The United Kingdom has collapsed as both a supplier and a destination

The UK's role in EU trade for this product was dramatically disrupted by Brexit. As an import source, UK-origin ankle boot imports into the EU fell from €31.4 million to €4.8 million (−84.6%). As an export destination, the UK — formerly the EU's single largest export market at €67.9 million — fell to just €20.9 million (−69.2%). The volatility data shows a coefficient of variation of 0.89 for UK imports, confirming the abruptness of this disruption. The 2022 export price shock to the UK — with a 21.7% price shift and an abnormality score of 3.8 — likely reflects post-Brexit customs frictions and currency effects rather than a fundamental supply disruption.

2.4 Import concentration has decreased, reflecting supply-chain diversification

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value fell from 6,134 to 4,602 (−25.0%), indicating a meaningful reduction in supplier concentration. While the market remains moderately concentrated (China alone still accounts for roughly two-thirds of import value), the emergence of Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Cambodia as material suppliers has introduced greater geographic diversification — a structural trend that may partly reflect EU importers' efforts to hedge against over-reliance on any single origin. The concentration data confirms this broadening of the supplier base.

2.5 Exports have pivoted toward Switzerland, Norway, and Ukraine

On the export side, the EU's destination mix has also shifted. Switzerland grew from €18.3 million to €64.7 million (+252.6%), becoming the EU's largest single export market by 2025. Norway expanded from €4.1 million to €20.6 million (+402.7%), and Ukraine grew from €1.6 million to €6.6 million (+323.4%). By contrast, US-bound exports fell from €13.6 million to €7.6 million (−44.2%) and Russian exports declined from €20.0 million to €14.7 million (−26.3%), the latter likely influenced by EU sanctions following 2022. The partner-level export data documents this reorientation toward European non-EU neighbours.

3. A two-track market: mass imports versus high-value domestic production and exports

3.1 The sub-segment split reveals a clear value divide

CN 640291 comprises two sub-headings: 64029190 (standard ankle boots) and 64029110 (with protective metal toecap). In import terms, the standard sub-product (64029190) accounts for over 99% of both volume and value. Its import price per pair remained in the €8–12 range throughout the period. The safety-toecap sub-product (64029110), while tiny in volume (688,573 pairs imported in 2025), carries a substantially higher unit value (€20.74/pair in 2025 vs. €9.98 for the standard product) and has seen its import volume grow from 245,827 pairs in 2015 to 688,573 pairs in 2025 (+180%).

3.2 EU production has shifted toward higher value despite lower volumes

EU domestic production volumes fell from 32.7 million pairs in 2015 to 28.4 million pairs in 2025 (−13.3%), yet production value surged from €248 million to €735 million (+196.9%). This implies the average value per pair produced within the EU rose from approximately €7.56 to €25.91 — a more than threefold increase that likely reflects both inflation and a deliberate move up the value chain by EU manufacturers, focusing on premium, branded, or technically specialised products that command higher prices.

3.3 Member state specialisation confirms the concentration of production in traditional footwear regions

The specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals that the EU member states with the highest revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) in CN 640291 are Poland (RSCA 0.45, RCA 2.62), Slovakia (RSCA 0.41, RCA 2.41), Portugal (RSCA 0.19, RCA 1.47), Spain (RSCA 0.18, RCA 1.44), and Italy (RSCA 0.16, RCA 1.38). These countries combine established footwear manufacturing traditions with cost-competitive or design-oriented production. Poland in particular accounts for 17.4% of EU production volume for this product, against only 6.6% of overall EU exports — indicating its role as a major production hub, partly serving intra-EU demand.

Among the least specialised member states, Malta (RCA 0.005), Ireland (RCA 0.017), and Cyprus (RCA 0.057) show virtually no involvement in this product category.

3.4 EU export prices per pair are three to four times higher than import prices

The structural value premium of EU-produced footwear is evident in the price differential. In 2025, the average export price per pair stood at €33.46, compared to an average import price of €10.06 — a ratio of roughly 3.3:1. This ratio has widened over the decade (it was approximately 2.0:1 in 2015), confirming that the EU is increasingly specialised in the higher-value segment of this market. Germany and Italy are the leading exporters by value, with Germany growing from €39.0 million to €58.1 million (+49.1%) and Italy declining marginally from €47.7 million to €41.9 million (−12.3%). Poland also emerged as a significant exporter, more than doubling from €13.2 million to €31.1 million (+135.5%).

Conclusion

The EU market for ankle boots in rubber or plastics (CN 640291) has undergone a quiet but profound transformation over the 2015–2025 period. Traded volumes — both imports and exports — have declined substantially, yet trade values have proven far more resilient, lifted by steadily rising unit prices. The supply base has diversified geographically, with China's dominant share eroding and South/Southeast Asian origins (Myanmar, Bangladesh, Cambodia) gaining ground, while the United Kingdom's role collapsed post-Brexit on both sides of the trade ledger. Within the EU, production has contracted in volume but expanded dramatically in value, reflecting a strategic shift toward higher-margin output. The result is a two-track market: one dominated by mass, low-cost imports averaging around €10 per pair, and another characterised by EU exports averaging over €33 per pair, increasingly destined for neighbouring European markets such as Switzerland and Norway. The EU's structural import reliance (above 80%) remains firmly in place, but the evolving geography of supply and the rising value intensity of EU production suggest a market that is adapting — if not yet fully insulated — against concentration risks and cost-driven competition.